Okay, so conspiracy theories are part and parcel of blogs… practically a requirement that if you have a blog you must espouse some kind of conspiracy theory. However, some fairly good bloggers have all ran with a story that appeared in the Pensacola News Journal. I can say that I’ve heard off-line from a few more people.
1. Katherine Harris will win the primary for U.S. Senate.
2. Tom Gallagher will lose the primary for Governor.
3. Katherine Harris will quit the U.S. Senate race – for health reasons.
4. Tom Gallagher will be appointed by the Republican Party of Florida to take her place.
Whomever started such a rumor — and it may be more than one person — really needs to consider this again.
First, Bill Nelson has at least $12 million in cash on hand. The only candidate with more cash on hand than he has? Hillary Clinton. A newly appointed Gallagher would have $0 in his account. Remember, it is very hard to raise $12 million (or more) in less than two months.
Second, the National Republican Senatorial Committee had less than $20 million cash available as of June 30th. To be sure, the RNC has some extra cash ($45 million), but they will be looking at the bigger picture for both the House and Senate. On the flip side, the Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee has more than $37 million cash, even if the DNC has only $10 million.
Next, let’s consider the fact that Congresswoman Harris would have to quit. Ha! Say whatever you want about her, but she is not a quitter. However, let’s say she will quit. She can’t “slow down” before the primary — and she can’t suddenly drop out right after the primary. There will need to be some lag time to make this really sound viable.
So, Nelson and the DSCC will have a substantial financial advantage. A Gallagher loss means he could not overcome Crist’s much smaller advantage. What makes anyone think Gallagher, appointed a considerable time after the primary, could come close to competing with Nelson financially? Not to mention that Gallagher would have some delay in ramping up his campaign.
No. Gallagher was shafted in 2000, when he would have easily beat Nelson. This scenario is really just some Republicans grasping at straws, hoping against hope that they can find some way to beat Nelson.
But man it’s fun to read on the blogs!!