National Race by Race Analysis… U.S. House

Earlier, the State of Sunshine posted it’s prediction that the Democrats will take control of the United States House of Representatives. To give you a guide to the elections, I have taken six national tracking sites and listed the top 79 races – 69 Republican seats and 10 Democratic seats.

This is a lot of information to read, but I wanted you to see how these pundits saw the races (links to their sites are listed below). Here is a quick codes to the races:

TU = Toss up (TUR = Toss Up, Tilting Republican; TUD = Toss Up, Tilting Democratic)
LeR = Leaning Republican; LiR = Likely Republican; SaR = Safe Republican
LeD = Leaning Democratic; LiD = Likely Democratic; SaD = Safe Democratic

As you can, look at the colors of the boxes… yellow is used to denote toss up races, with shades of red for Republicans and shades of blue for Democrats.

Finally, you may want to print this page and use it on election night. If not, you can tell how big the wave will be by looking at a few states: Florida, Indiana, Kentucky, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The more Republican seats you see switching to Democrat in these six states, the larger the wave will be; and vice-versa.

(NOTE: For the real die-hards out there, CQ Politics has a very good analysis of previous elections when one party had large gains in the U.S. Congress – 1994, 1982, 1974, etc)

So, I present to you a rundown of 79 seats in the U.S. Congress — a chart you can only find on the State of Sunshine (which makes me wish I had done this weeks ago):

State Dist Rep Dem WP Sab CQP Roth Cook NYT
Ariz. 1 Rep. Rick Renzi (i) Ellen Simon TU TU TUR TU SaR
Ariz. 5 Rep. J.D. Hayworth (i) Harry Mitchell TU TU TUD TU LeR
Ariz. 8 Randy Graf Gabrielle Giffords LeD LiD LeD LiD LeD SaD
Cal. 4 Rep. John Doolittle (i) Charlie Brown LeR LeR TUR LeR LeR
Cal. 11 Rep. Richard Pombo (i) Jerry McNerney TU LeR TU TU SaR
Cal. 50 Rep. Brian Bilbray (i) Francine Busby LeR LeR LiR LeR SaR
Colo. 4 Marilyn Musgrave (i) Angie Paccione TU TU LeR TUR TU LeR
Colo. 5 Doug Lamborn Jay Fawcett LeR LiR LiR LeR LeR
Colo. 6 Rep. Tom Tancredo (i) Bill Winter LeR SaR SaR
Colo. 7 Rick O’Donnell Ed Perlmutter LeD LiD LeD LiD LeD LeD
Conn. 2 Rep. Rob Simmons (i) Joe Courtney TU TU LeR TU TU TU
Conn. 4 Rep. Chris Shays (i) Diane Farrell TU TU TU TU TU TU
Conn. 5 Rep. Nancy L. Johnson (i) Chris Murphy TU TU TU TUD TU TU
Fla. 8 Rep. Rick Keller (i) Charlie Stuart LiR LiR LiR SaR
Fla. 9 Gus Bilirakis Phyllis Busansky LiR LiR LiR SaR
Fla. 13 Vern Buchanan Christine Jennings TU LeD TU TUD TU TU
Fla. 16 Joe Negron Tim Mahoney TU TU LeD TU TU TU
Fla. 22 Rep. E. Clay Shaw Jr. (i) Ron Klein TU TU TU TU TU TU
Ga. 8 Mac Collins Rep. Jim Marshall (i) LeD LeD TUD LeD LeD
Ga. 12 Max Burns Rep. John Barrow (i) TU TU LeD TUD TU LeD
Id. 1 Bill Sali Larry Grant TU LeR TUR TU LeR
Iowa 1 Mike Whalen Bruce Braley LeD LeD LeD LeD LeD LeD
Iowa 2 Rep. Jim Leach (i) Dave Loebsack LeR LiR LiR SaR
Iowa 3 Jeff Lamberti Rep. Leonard Boswell (i) LeD LeD LeD LeD LeD
Ill. 6 Peter Roskam Tammy Duckworth TU TU TU TU TU TU
Ill. 8 Dave McSweeney Rep. Melissa Bean (i) LeD LeD LeD TUD LeD LeD
Ind. 2 Rep. Chris Chocola (i) Joe Donnelly LeD LeD TU LeD TU LeD
Ind. 3 Rep. Mark Souder (i) Tom Hayhurst LiR LiR LiR SaR
Ind. 7 Eric Dickerson Rep. Julia Carson (i) LiD LiD LiD LeD
Ind. 8 Rep. John Hostettler (i) Brad Ellsworth LeD LiD LeD LiD TU LeD
Ind. 9 Rep. Mike Sodrel (i) Baron Hill TU TU TU TUD TU LeD
Kan. 2 Rep. Jim Ryun (i) Nancy Boyda TU LiR TU TU LeR
Ky. 2 Rep. Ron Lewis (i) Mike Weaver LeR LiR LiR LeR LeR
Ky. 3 Rep. Anne Northup (i) John Yarmuth TU TU LeR TUR TU LeR
Ky. 4 Rep. Geoff Davis (i) Ken Lucas TU TU LeR TUR TU LeR
Lou. 3 Craig Romero Rep. Charlie Melancon (i) LiD LiD LeD SaD
Mich. 7 Tim Walberg Sharon Renier LiR LiR LiR SaR
Minn. 1 Rep. Gil Gutknecht (i) Tim Walz TU TU LeR TU TU LeR
Minn. 2 Rep. John Kline (i) Coleen Rowley LiR LiR SaR
Minn. 6 Michele Bachmann Patty Wetterling LeR TU TU TU TU TU
Neb. 3 Adrian Smith Scott Kleeb TU LeR LiR LeR LeR
Nev. 2 Dean Heller Jill Derby LeR LeR LeR LeR
Nev. 3 Rep. Jon Porter (i) Tessa Hafen TU LeR TUR TU LeR
N.C. 8 Rep. Robin Hayes (i) Larry Kissell LeR LiR LiR SaR
N.C. 11 Rep. Charles H. Taylor (i) Heath Shuler LeD LeD TU TUD TU LeD
N.H. 1 Rep. Jeb Bradley (i) Carol Porter-Shea LiR LiR LiR SaR
N.H. 2 Rep. Charles Bas (i) Paul Hodes TU TUD TU TU
N.J. 7 Rep. Mike Ferguson (i) Linda Stender LeR LeR LeR LeR SaR
N.M. 1 Rep. Heather Wilson (i) Patricia Madrid TU TU TU TU TU TU
N.Y. 3 Rep. Peter King (i) Dave Mejias LiR LiR LiR SaR
N.Y. 19 Rep. Sue Kelly (i) John Hall TU LeR LiR LeR LeR
N.Y. 20 Rep. John Sweeney (i) Kirsten Gillibrand TU TU TUD TU TU
N.Y. 24 Ray Meier Michael Arcuri LeD LeD TU TUD LeD LeD
N.Y. 25 Rep. Jim Walsh (i) Dan Maffei TU LiR TUR LeR LeR
N.Y. 26 Rep. Thomas Reynolds (i) Jack Davis LeR TU LeD TU TU LeR
N.Y. 29 Rep. Randy Kuhl (i) Eric Massa LeR LeR TUR LeR LeR
Ohio 1 Rep. Steve Chabot (i) John Cranley TU TU TU TU TU LeR
Ohio 2 Rep. Jean Schmidt (i) Victoria Wulsin TU TU TU TU LeR
Ohio 6 Chuck Blasdel Charlie Wilson LiD LiD LiD SaD
Ohio 12 Rep. Pat Tiberi (i) Bob Shamansky LiR LiR LeR LiR SaR
Ohio 15 Rep. Deborah Pryce (i) Mary Jo Kilroy TU TU TU LeD TU TU
Ohio 18 Joy Padgett Zack Space LeD LeD LeD LeD LeD LeD
Penn. 4 Rep. Melissa Hart (i) Jason Altmire TU LeR TU TU LeR
Penn. 6 Rep. Jim Gerlach (i) Lois Murphy TU LeD TU TU TU TU
Penn. 7 Rep. Curt Weldon (i) Joe Sestak LeD LeD LeD LeD TU LeD
Penn. 8 Rep. Michael G. Fitzpatrick (i) Patrick Murphy TU TU TU TU TU LeR
Penn. 10 Rep. Don Sherwood (i) Chris Carney LeD LeD LeD LeD TU LeD
Texas 17 Van Taylor Rep. Chet Edwards (i) LiD LiD LeD SaD
Texas 22 Shelley Sekula-Gibbs Nick Lampson LeR TU LeD TU TU TU
Texas 23 Rep. Henry Bonilla (i) Ciro Rodriguez LeR LiR LeR LeR SaR
Vt AL Martha Rainville Peter Welch LiD LeD LiD LeD LeD
Va. 2 Rep. Thelma D. Drake (i) Phil Kellam TU TU LeR TU TU TU
Va. 10 Rep. Frank Wolf (i) Judy Feder LeR LiR LiR SaR
Wash. 5 Rep. Cathy McMorris (i) Peter Goldmark LeR LiR LiR LeR
Wash. 8 Rep. Dave Reichert (i) Darcy Burner LeR TU TU TUR LeR SaD
Wisc. 8 John Gard Steve Kagen LeR TU TU TU TU TU
WV 1 Chris Wakim Rep. Alan Mollohan (i) LiD LiD LiD SaD
WV 2 Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (i) Mike Callaghan LiR LiR LiR SaR
Wy. AL Rep. Barbara Cubin (i) Gary Trauner TU TU LiR TU TU
WP = Washington Post
Sab = Larry Sabato
CQP = CQ Politics
Roth = Stu Rothenberg
Cook = Charlie Cook (PDF)
NYT = New York Times

About Jim Johnson

Editor and publisher of The State of Sunshine.
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

Comments are closed.