Florida Forecast: Rain – Could Lower Turnout

Just before polls open in Florida, rain has already started to fall (click the picture above to see the Bay News 9 Doppler Radar). From watching several morning weather reports, it looks like the Panhandle and North Florida will see the most rain – it looks like it will rain most of the day from Pensacola to Jacksonville. The Bay area has a 60% chance of rain at 10:00am, a 70% chance at 3:00pm, and a 50% chance at 7:00pm (according to ABC Action News).

The GOP has worked hard to drive the turnout, but polls show that Democrats are still more enthused about voting this year (by just under 10%). That means Republican voters might be slightly more likely to stay home in the rain. This could have serious effects on close statewide races, such as the race for C.F.O. and Attorney General. It could also spell trouble for the 13th, 16th, and 22nd Congressional districts.

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Robert C. at Interstate 4 Jamming posted about the effects of rain on turnout. He had an earlier post about a study showing that bad weather historically drags down Democratic turnout. CNN had a brief forecast for the national picture.

About Jim Johnson

Editor and publisher of The State of Sunshine.
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