State of Sunshine’s Florida Election Predictions

During the primary, the State of Sunshine made some predictions. While we did better than 50%, it was not the best showing.

In the general election, Robert C at Interstate 4 Jamming, Smitty over at Smitty’s World and South of the Suwanee have posted their picks. So, let’s take a look at Florida’s races and predict some winners:

Predictions of note:
- Dems 3 GOP Congressional seats
- GOP picks up 1 Dem State Senate seat and 1 Dem State House seat
- Dems pick up 1 GOP State Senate seat and 2 GOP State House seats
- Women candidates dominate judicial elections

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THE PREDICTIONS
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U.S. Senate: Bill Nelson (D) (i) ♦

U.S. Congress District 1: Jeff Miller (R) (i) ♦
U.S. Congress District 4: Ander Crenshaw (R) (i) ♦
U.S. Congress District 5: Ginny Brown-Waite (R) (i) ♦
U.S. Congress District 6: Cliff Stearns (R) (i) ♦
U.S. Congress District 7: John Mica (R) (i) ♦
U.S. Congress District 8: Ric Keller (R) (i) ♦
U.S. Congress District 9: Gus Bilirakis (R) ♦
U.S. Congress District 10: Bill Young (R) (i) ♦
U.S. Congress District 11: Kathy Castor (D) ♦
U.S. Congress District 12: Adam Putnam (R) (i) ♦
U.S. Congress District 13: Christine Jennings (D) [Recount]
U.S. Congress District 14: Connie Mack (R) (i) ♦
U.S. Congress District 15: Dave Weldon (R) (i) ♦
U.S. Congress District 16: Tim Mahoney (D) ♦
U.S. Congress District 17: Kendrick Meek (D) (i) ♦
U.S. Congress District 18: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) (i) ♦
U.S. Congress District 21: Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) (i) ♦
U.S. Congress District 22: Ron Klein (D) ♦
U.S. Congress District 24: Tom Feeney (R) (i) ♦
U.S. Congress District 25: Mario Diaz-Balart (R) (i) ♦

Governor: Charlie Crist (R) ♦
CFO: Alex Sink (D) ♦
Attorney General: Skip Campbell (D)
Agriculture Commissioner: Charlie Bronson (R) (i) ♦

State Senate District 8: Jim King (R) (i) ♦
State Senate District 10: Ronda Storms (R) ♦
State Senate District 12: Victor Crist (R) (i) ♦
State Senate District 14: Steve Oelrich (R) ♦
State Senate District 16: Charlie Justice (D) ♦
State Senate District 18: Arthenia Joyner (D) ♦
State Senate District 22: Lee Constantine (R) (i) ♦
State Senate District 28: Ken Pruitt (R) (i) ♦
State Senate District 30: Ted Deutch (D) ♦
State Senate District 32: Jeremy Ring (D) ♦
State Senate District 36: Alex Diaz de la Portilla (R) (i) ♦
State Senate District 38: Alex Villalobos (R) (i) ♦

State House District 3: Holly Benson (R) (i) ♦
State House District 5: Don Brown (R) (i) ♦
State House District 6: Jimmy Patronis (R) ♦
State House District 11: David Pope (R)
State House District 14: Terry Fields (D) (i) ♦
State House District 15: Audrey Gibson (D) (i) ♦
State House District 22: Larry Cretul (R) (i) ♦
State House District 23: Chuck Chestnut ♦
State House District 24: Dennis Baxley (R) (i) ♦
State House District 26: Pat Patterson (R) (i) ♦
State House District 27: Joyce Cusack (D) (i) ♦
State House District 28: Dorothy Hukil (R) (i) ♦
State House District 31: Mitch Needelman (R) (i) ♦
State House District 32: Bob Allen (R) (i) ♦
State House District 33: Sandy Adams (R) (i) ♦
State House District 35: Dean Cannon (R) (i) ♦
State House District 36: Sheri McInvale (R) (i)
State House District 39: Geraldine Thompson (D) ♦
State House District 40: Andy Gardiner (R) (i) ♦
State House District 41: Stephen Precourt (R) ♦
State House District 42: Hugh Gibson (R) (i) ♦
State House District 44: Robert Schenck ♦
State House District 45: Tom Anderson (R) (i) ♦
State House District 47: Kevin Ambler (R) (i) ♦
State House District 48: Peter Nehr (R) ♦
State House District 49: John Quinones (R) (i) ♦
State House District 50: Ed Hooper ♦
State House District 51: Janet Long (D) ♦
State House District 52: Bill Heller (D) ♦
State House District 53: Rick Kriseman (D) ♦
State House District 54: Jim Frishe (R) ♦
State House District 56: Trey Traviesa (R) (i) ♦
State House District 57: Faye Culp (R) (i) ♦
State House District 58: Mike Schionti (D) ♦
State House District 59: Betty Reed (D) ♦
State House District 60: Ed Homan (R) (i) ♦
State House District 61: Will Weatherford (R)* ♦
State House District 62: Rich Glorioso (R) (i) ♦
State House District 63: Seth McKeel (R) ♦
State House District 69: Laura Benson (R)
State House District 70: Doug Holder (R) ♦
State House District 71: Michael Grant (R) ♦
State House District 73: Nick Thompson (R) ♦
State House District 76: Garrett Richter (R) ♦
State House District 77: Denise Grimsley (R) (i) ♦
State House District 79: Frank Atkisson (R) (i) ♦
State House District 81: Gayle Harrell (R) (i) ♦
State House District 82: William Snyder (R) ♦
State House District 83: Carl Domino (R) (i) ♦
State House District 85: Shelly Vana (D) (i) ♦
State House District 86: Maria Sachs (D) ♦
State House District 87: Adam Hasner (R) (i) ♦
State House District 91: Ellen Bogdanoff (R) (i) ♦
State House District 93: Perry Thurston (D) ♦
State House District 97: Susan Goldstein (R) (i)
State House District 99: Elaine Schwartz (D) ♦
State House District 102: Manuel Riera (R)* ♦
State House District 104: Yolly Roberson (D) (i) ♦
State House District 107: Frank Carollo (R)
State House District 108: Ronald Brisé (D) ♦
State House District 109: Dorothy Bendross-Mindingall (D) (i) ♦
State House District 110: Rene Garcia (R) (i) ♦
State House District 111: Marco Rubio (R) (i) ♦
State House District 112: David Rivera (R) (i) ♦
State House District 113: Carlos Lopez-Cantera (R) (i) ♦
State House District 116: Marcelo Llorente (R) (i) ♦
State House District 119: Juan Zapata (R) (i) ♦
State House District 120: David Rice (R)
* = These names do not appear on the ballot as they are replacements for candidates that withdrew after the state deadline.

(NOTE: I believe The Florida Democratic Party has lost State House seats in every election since 1982. Only the three italicized predictions above — 11, 51, & 52 — would be seats that change hands, all other races the incumbent party retains the seat.)

5th Judicial Circuit Group 29: Sandy Hawkins
5th Judicial Circuit Group 31: Daniel Merritt, Jr. ♦
6th Judicial Circuit Group 9: Chris Helinger ♦
6th Judicial Circuit Group 32: LeAnne Lake
10th Judicial Circuit Group 27: Ernest Jones ♦
12th Judicial Circuit Group 21: Rochelle Taylor Curley ♦
13th Judicial Circuit Group 32: Betsy Hapner
13th Judicial Circuit Group 43: Kimberly Ferndandez ♦
13th Judicial Circuit Group 44: Emily Peacock ♦
13th Judicial Circuit Group 45: Ashley Brooke Moody ♦

Pasco County Court Group 6: Anne Wansboro ♦
Pasco County Court Group 7: Candy VanDerCar ♦

NOTE: In this year’s primary, the only time a female judicial candidate did not either win the election or make it into a run off was if – A) There were more than one female candidates or B) She was taking on an incumbent judge. Historically, female judicial candidates tend to do significantly better than their male opponents.

Constitutional Amendment 1: No
Constitutional Amendment 3: Yes ♦
Constitutional Amendment 4: Yes ♦
Constitutional Amendment 6: Yes ♦
Constitutional Amendment 7: Yes ♦
Constitutional Amendment 8: Yes ♦

Hernando County Commission District 2: Nancy Robinson (R)
Hernando County Commission District 4: Dave Russell (R) ♦
Hillsborough County Commission District 1: Rose Ferlita (R) ♦
Hillsborough County Commission District 3: Kevin White (D) ♦
Hillsborough County Commission District 4: Al Higginbotham (R) ♦
Hillsborough County Commission District 5: Jim Norman (R) (i) ♦
Hillsborough County Commission District 7: Mark Sharpe (R) (i) ♦
Manatee County Commission District 6: Carol Whitmore (R) ♦
Pasco County Commission District 4: Steve Simon (R)
Pinellas County Commission District 2: Calvin Harris (D) (i) ♦
Pinellas County Commission District 6: John Morroni (R) (i) ♦

Hernando County School Board District 1: Richard McDermott
Hernando County School Board District 3: John Druzbick
Hillsborough County School Board District 6: April Griffin [Recount]
Manatee County School Board District 4: Bob Gause ♦
Pasco County School Board District 1: Cathi Compton
Pasco County School Board District 3: Michele Chamberlin
Pinellas County School Board District 3: Peggy O’Shea ♦
Pinellas County School Board District 7: Mary Brown (i) ♦

Hillsborough County Soul & Water Conservation Board: Dennis Carlton ♦

Hillsborough County Straw Poll Referendum: Yes ♦

About Jim Johnson

Editor and publisher of The State of Sunshine.
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One Response to State of Sunshine’s Florida Election Predictions

  1. You sure you’re not going out on a limb with that Bill Nelson pick. Harris says her internal numbers are good.

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