Okay, so I know the State of Sunshine is again digressing into National politics. But I found something interesting (to me at least).
First, bloggers and the media have noted the recent Qunippiac University poll in Florida. The poll included prospective as well as announced candidates. Here are the results, in case you missed it:
- Clinton 36%
- Gore 16%
- Obama 13%
- Edwards 11%
- Richardson 2%
- Biden 1%
- Clark 1%
- Kucinich 1%
- Dodd <1%
- Gravel <1%
Clinton lost substanital ground since February, when she had 49% of the vote. Gore and Edwards made the most gains (from 7% each). Obama has been at 13%.
- Giuliani 35%
- McCain 15%
- Gingrich 11%
- Thompson, F 6%
- Romney 5%
- Brownback, Paul, & Thompson, T all 1%
- Gilmore, Hagel, Huckabee, Hunter, Pataki, and Tancredo all <1%
The poll also broke out the White-Born Again-Evangelical vote that comprises a large portion of the Republican base. Among those voters, the race is:
- Giuliani 30%
- McCain 15%
- Gingrich 14%
- Thompson, F 10%
- Romney 4%
- Thompson, T 2%
- Huckabee & Paul 1%
- Brownback, Gilmore, Hagel, Hunter, Pataki, & Tancredo all <1%
The interesting comparison here is that Romney actually has more support from outside the W-BA-E base. It also shows how much support Fred Thompson has within that base.
So, it seems that – in Florida at least – Fred Thompson has a decent chance to lock up the more conservative votes in the Republican party.
Now compare that to this Red State post by Adam C listing the reasons why Thompson should run:
1) There is no MAJOR issue where he is at odds with any conservative wing of the party. And Thompson is not a recent convert for political reasons on any major issue.
2) Thompson was outside politics from 2002-2008 when Republican stock went downhill. As a corollary, Thompson is not tied to President Bush or the current Senate in any way.
3) Thompson’s ability to communicate ideas clearly and earnestly makes many think of Reagan’s ability to win over people to ideas that are not necessarily popular (say seeing Iraq through until victory)
4) Most people like a person who is not a career politician but is an educated and active citizen to be President
5) Thompson is probably the most conservative electable candidate.
and a comment left by “septembergurl”:
6) Thompson is from Tennessee, the South or more accurately a border state, and thus well positioned to hold a number of Southern and border states in the general election. One of the problems with Giuliani and Romney is that they are Notheastern republicans, representing a wing of the party that has lost out to the South & West. I like Sanford and Jeb Bush, but neither of them shows signs of running. The only other southerner is Huckabee and he is not going anywhere.
I said before that I think Rudy has the best chance of winning… but I am open to re-evaluating that position. I had thought it would be Newt Gingrich that might make me reconsider America’s Mayor… but maybe there’s something to be said for Thompson, afterall.