What do the Iowa results mean?

Ah, that is really the question. The pundits have been trying to figure out what resounding wins by Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama could mean for the future.

Here’s my prediction: Barack Obama and Mitt Romney will win New Hampshire.

First, according to the pundits last night Obama’s victory was pushed, in large part, by a record turnout of new caucus goers and probably a large number of independent voters who caucused with the Democrats this year. In New Hampshire, independents can also vote in either primary, and Obama could draw a large portion of them as well. Obama has clearly placed himself has the anti-Clinton, a position John Edwards was trying to occupy.

Second, John McCain’s fourth place showing in Iowa not withstanding, the Arizona Senator is counting on drawing independent voters as he did in 2000. Remember, McCain beat eventual-nominee George Bush in the 2000 primary. However, if Obama is siphoning off independents, it should enable Romney to hold his lead. Huckabee won’t get a lot of traction in a GOP base that is far less conservative than he, especially on taxes. This all adds up to a comfortable win for Mitt.

For the Democrats, it looks like Obama could sweep into Super Duper Tuesday with some significant momentum, but in many states where Hillary Clinton has a significant lead in the polls. While the Republicans will probably split between Huckabee (Iowa & South Carolina) and Romney (New Hampshire & Michigan) leading up to Florida and Super Tuesday, where Rudy Giuliani is waiting.

Only 32 days left until February 5th, Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Tuesday.

About Jim Johnson

Editor and publisher of The State of Sunshine.
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