I was wrong about New Hampshire…

Some of you may recall that I predicted Barack Obama would attract such a large number of indepdendent voters away from John McCain, it would result in Obama and Mitt Romney winning the primary.

Oops.

To be sure, Obama attracted a lot of independent voters. One exit poll I saw indicated that he had more independents than Democrats. (That doesn’t bode well for the future, when states’ primaries are closed to independents – and it could benefit Clinton).

So what happened? It appears the independent voters walked away from the Iowa winner because the tracking polls showed him doing so well. It’s almost like they thought “Obama doesn’t need my vote, he’s going to win — I think I’ll vote for McCain.”

For McCain, it’s on to Michigan. Romney’s firewall. Romney’s father was governor Michigan, and Mitt has bought TV time in the state for this next week. And, we have a full week of campaigning in the Great Lakes state. Don’t forget Huckabee and Giuliani, tho — they were both competitive in polls in December. And it will be important as a lead in to South Carolina just four days later.*

The Democrats are skipping Michigan, with only Clinton’s name on the ballot there. The results will be meaningless. They are moving on to Nevada the 19th and South Carolina on the 26th. Nevada is a closed caucus, so Obama’s independent appeal will be irrelevant.

It will be interesting to see how the campaigns spin the results… and how the pundits analyze them.

* NOTE: Republicans vote in South Carolina on Saturday the 19th, Democrats vote a week later.

About Jim Johnson

Editor and publisher of The State of Sunshine.
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2 Responses to I was wrong about New Hampshire…

  1. The polling numbers I’ve had Hillary Clinton picked up Dodd and Biden New Hampshire supporters. Another interesting thing about the Iowa caucas is that votes are public. Many women don’t want to stand alone in the Hillary lines, away from their husbands. That could explain why Obama did better than expecting with women in Iowa. Maybe Obama’s support is softer than thought.

    Huckabee winning Iowa helped McCain in New Hampshire. Besides Arizona, I don’t see what McCain can win. The base hates him.

    Edwards could do better than expected in Nevada. His union support is strong. The problem is momentum. It’s between Hillary and Obama.

    It’s been over for Fred Thompson a month ago. South Carolina will make it official. His Florida polling numbers are bad. How could you be excited about a former Senator who doesn’t even remember the bills he sponsored?

    Is it me or did Adam Putnam make a fool of himself by publicly backing Thompson yesterday. Republicans on the Admiral’s campaign have left. Putnam really seems political tone deaf.

    I also thought Obama was going to win New Hampshire. Hillary finally let her guard down and explained why she wanted to be President. I watched the video and didn’t see tears. Newsweek overstated the moment and everyone ran with it.

    I see South Carolina going to Obama and Huckabee. Clinton had black churches and civic leaders locked up. They were getting nervous. New Hampshire reassured a lot of black leaders whom endorsed Hillary. Voters may decide to go with Obama anyway.

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