I voted.

I Voted
Earlier today I told you how it was still a difficult decision. It was. I stared at that screen for five minutes. In the end, I voted for Rudy Giuliani. It’s not that I think Rudy is the best candidate. Clearly I don’t. I like them all equally, which is to say not a whole heck of alot. (Although any of them are preferable to anything the Democrats have to offer.)

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So here is why I voted for Rudy: to thumb my nose at Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

I don’t like the way this primary season has shaped up. There has to be a better way. That is where Rudy comes in.

Pundits have been talking about the strategy of waiting until Florida and Super Tuesday, calling the concept all kinds of things – none of them positive. By focusing the money on the bigger prizes – from staffing and organization to media – Giuliani is swinging for the fences. Yes, he could go down swinging; but he could also hit the biggest home run since Babe Ruth.

A Giuliani win would turn the primary world upside down. It would be like the introduction of the West Coast offense, the shot clock, and the designated hitter. The rules of the game would be changed forever.

In 2012, candidates can follow the same strategy. Skipping Iowa and New Hampshire for the bigger prizes. Depending on the calendar, you could see regionalization — a southern candidate focusing all his energy on the southern states, for example. Or you could see a focus on only the big states.

I don’t yet think the pundits have realized the potential impact of a Giuliani win here and next week. This is probably because all the polls they look at say it’s not gonna happen.

It may not. But since everything else, to me, was really equal — this seems to be as good a reason as any to pick a candidate.

[hr]

As a side note, I voted against Amendment 1. I don’t own a home, but will some day (hopefully) soon. When I do, I want more than the paltry effort the legislature as set before us. It’s time for our state and local governments to grow a backbone and provide real tax relief. This watered-down, sound-bite stuff just ain’t gonna cut it.

About Jim Johnson

Editor and publisher of The State of Sunshine.
This entry was posted in 2008, Elections, National, Property Taxes, Republican Party. Bookmark the permalink.

7 Responses to I voted.

  1. If you want to have anything left of this country, you should have voted for Ron Paul. (I voted the 24th)

    I had a hard time deciding on Amendment One. The first version was completely unacceptable, as it would have done away with save our homes. This one was bad, but I still voted for it. I know we really need a TABOR (based on Pop and CPI, not income) or a total cap on all poperty tax increases–rental, business, everything–and a rollback to 2001 with 17% added to adjust for inflation.

    According to JMI, property tax increased by 76% between 2001 and 2006. That is why it is such a joke when all the local governments started talking loss of fundamental services! Not to mention the fact that one of the first things they did was use our money to hire a PR firm to lobby in Tallahassee.

    Although I don’t plan to stop fighting for a TABOR, I could not let these few crumbs go by. I do own property and between my insurance and property taxes, since 2001 the cost went from $5000 to about $13,000 per year. I had to take the little they tossed us.

    keep up the fight, and thanks for voting!

  2. Will says:

    Jim,

    I did not personally like the amendment 1 very much. However, i am in the 5% minority that follows economics VERY CLOSELY. Florida’s housing market bursting has finally taken a significant toll on the state’s economy, even moreso than before, and no one has really noticed yet.

    The FL unemployment rate has jumped 1.2% in just 4 months. It is not even slowing down, it is, in fact, speeding up. I am expecting the unemployment rate to go up another 1.3% by July, and the rest of the year…. well that depends on this amendment.

    If this amendment passes, portability will spike a very quick 6 month turnaround, with home sales up 10-15% higher than would be by July. If it does not, the housing market will take another 2-3 years to come back, and by that time Florida will be in a recession that made the 1991 recession look like a party.

    Im no doomsday predictor. I knew in 2004 that despite many economist claims that the national economy had no steam, that it was fine and would be for a while.

    I also knew, despite the lack of coverage, that MI was in for it bad. I moved out of MI just in time, and in the 3 years since about 200K more people are unemployed there, and housing prices plummeted by 25%. (IN FL, they went up 35%, then down, about breaking even from that point) I also knew exactly when the housing market was breaking, and pulled out of my housing sector fund in december 2005.

    Trust me on whats coming if this doesnt pass. We are all in for it bad. I am not likely to stick around to see it, either.

  3. Jim Johnson says:

    Will,

    I am going to respectfully disagree with you about any “portability bounce” that will happen.

    First, the legislature will have to pass the implementing legislation during the 2008 Legislative session. The new law probably won’t take effect until May or June, and won’t be retroactive.

    Second, if people waiting for portability suddenly flood a weak real estate market with a significant inventory of existing homes, the market conditions will actually get worse. Despite reducing interest rates, there is still a credit crunch. So, an ever shrinking pool of buyers will have significantly more inventory from which to choose.

    The state’s own economists downgraded the impact of Amendment 1 because they realized fewer people will be moving during the next five years than previously thought.

    So I don’t see Amendment 1 having any real impact on the real estate market or the economy as a whole.

  4. Jim Johnson says:

    Steve,

    I like Ron Paul’s concepts. However, he just doesn’t have the ability to sell them. Watching the debate last week, there were many times where he could have landed some great one-liners or quips that could illustrate his thoughts.

    For example, Russert asked if he would leave the Republican Party. Paul’s answer, talking about how the party has changed over time, was good — but needed punctuation: “Me leave the Republican Party? Tim, the Republican Party I know and love has left me.”

    As for TABOR, there were obvious problems. Colorado had to “suspend” TABOR for a short time to correct budget shortfalls.

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  6. Will says:

    Jim,

    Well, since amendment 1 passed, we will see what the housing market does in the next 6-12 months. My bet is that we will see a noticeable improvement in “sales” (10-15%) by July 1st, and prices to flatten mid-year, and by Jan 31st, 2009, prices will be “slowly” rising again.

    If this had not passed, i would push back both timetables by at least 8-12 months.

  7. kate says:

    I think you oughta climb into a corset, slap that there sticker somewhere interesting and take a photo for your female fans.

    Something to think about come November…

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