Okay, a few days ago I posted that it won’t matter what ever Florida and Michigan do. After a little analysis, with the help of the Slate and CNN delegate estimators, the math supports this…
But take a look for yourself:
| State | Clinton | Obama |
| Pledged Delegates (As of March 13) |
1,243 | 1,440 |
| Pennsylvania | 83 (52%) | 75 (48%) |
| Guam | 2 (52%) | 2 (48%) |
| Indiana | 39 (54%) | 33 (46%) |
| North Carolina | 50 (44%) | 65 (56%) |
| West Virginia | 15 (53%) | 13 (47%) |
| Kentucky | 27 (52%) | 24 (48%) |
| Oregon | 25 (48%) | 27 (52%) |
| Montana | 9 (54%) | 7 (46%) |
| South Dakota | 8 (54%) | 7 (46%) |
| Puerto Rico | 26 (47%) | 29 (53%) |
| Pledge Super Delegates (As of March 13) |
237 | 207 |
| —– | —– | —– |
| Total on June 7 | 1,764 | 1,893 |
Okay, so based on the percentages I listed above, the pledge regular and super delegates through the rest of the primaries would leave Obama 132 delegates short of the nomination, and Clinton 261 delegates short.
There are 351 super delegates left who have not committed to either candidate.
Okay, but what about this solution:
Hillary Clinton agrees the 55 “Uncommitted” delegates in Michigan would be awarded to Barack Obama. Barack Obama agrees to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates based on the results from the January primaries.
How would that look?
| State | Clinton | Obama |
| —– | —– | —– |
| Total on June 7 | 1,764 | 1,894 |
| Michigan | 73 | 55 |
| Florida | 105 | 67 |
| TOTAL | 1,942 | 2,015 |
If Obama stands up and is the bigger man — he comes within a hair’s breadth of the nomination.
He would only need 10 super delegates — or perhaps to win a handful more delegates in the remaining primaries — and he wins the nomination.
So here it is… this Republican has the idea to save the Democrats:
Obama needs to let the Michigan and Florida results stand. Clinton needs to give Michigan’s uncommitted delegates to Obama.
Why doesn’t anyone in the Democratic party get this?
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The only problem with that math is that the total delegate count would no longer be 2025 needed for the nomination, it would be 2175. That would mean Obama would only have a 73 delegate lead over Clinton while needing another 160 superdelegates to swing his way. That’s just too risky of an option. They’ve got to figure out something else.
Chyealla,
I do not believe that is the case. According to the DNC’s “Call for Delegates” from February of 2007, the total number of delegates including Florida and Michigan is 4,048 — so 2,025 is a majority.
Here is the link from the DNC website:
http://www.democrats.org/a/convention_2008/delegate/