Yes, I said it. You can to. Say it with me.
Prez-ih-dent Buh-rock Oh-bah-muh.
Sure Senator Obama only wrapped up the Democratic nomination today, and election day is still more than five months away.
But I don’t see how Senator John McCain, the nominee of my party, could possibly win the election.
Why? Three little words: Third. Bush. Term.
Oh sure, John McCain is not George W Bush. He doesn’t have the same positions on many issues. But that doesn’t really matter. If McCain tries to make the argument that he is somehow the “right” change, then he is arguing there is a need for change. So he is going to have to make the argument that “a little” change is somehow better than “a lot” of change. That is a failing argument.
And it’s an argument that is too long.
When I used to manage campaigns, one of the maxims I followed is there are two sides to each issue: the one minute argument and the one hour argument. The American people barely pays attention to politics, so if you have their attention, you better have a one minute argument. If you have to explain, qualify, outline, emphasize, etc… you will lose their attention and they will be back watching the Simpsons.
On the issue of change, Obama has a monopoly on the one minute arguments.
Does McCain have a chance? Sure. Paint Obama as being to the left of Fidel Castro. Outline how his tax increases will affect our pocketbooks. Show how his government regulations will stifle competition and growth here. Then Obama has to say one word: change.
So it is with a deep regret that I make the prediction: We will see Obama on the steps of the Capitol on January 20, 2009.
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to go volunteer for McCain. To see if I can prove myself wrong.