President Barack Obama.

Yes, I said it. You can to. Say it with me.

Prez-ih-dent Buh-rock Oh-bah-muh.

Sure Senator Obama only wrapped up the Democratic nomination today, and election day is still more than five months away.

But I don’t see how Senator John McCain, the nominee of my party, could possibly win the election.

Why? Three little words: Third. Bush. Term.

Oh sure, John McCain is not George W Bush. He doesn’t have the same positions on many issues. But that doesn’t really matter. If McCain tries to make the argument that he is somehow the “right” change, then he is arguing there is a need for change. So he is going to have to make the argument that “a little” change is somehow better than “a lot” of change. That is a failing argument.

And it’s an argument that is too long.

When I used to manage campaigns, one of the maxims I followed is there are two sides to each issue: the one minute argument and the one hour argument. The American people barely pays attention to politics, so if you have their attention, you better have a one minute argument. If you have to explain, qualify, outline, emphasize, etc… you will lose their attention and they will be back watching the Simpsons.

On the issue of change, Obama has a monopoly on the one minute arguments.

Does McCain have a chance? Sure. Paint Obama as being to the left of Fidel Castro. Outline how his tax increases will affect our pocketbooks. Show how his government regulations will stifle competition and growth here. Then Obama has to say one word: change.

So it is with a deep regret that I make the prediction: We will see Obama on the steps of the Capitol on January 20, 2009.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to go volunteer for McCain. To see if I can prove myself wrong.

About Jim Johnson

Editor and publisher of The State of Sunshine.
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4 Responses to President Barack Obama.

  1. Vince says:

    Jim, I think you need a big hug and some love. Obama is a general election loser, as bad a candidate (from this battle-hardened conservative’s perspective) that McCain is.

    There are numerous problems for Obama- he is not that popular a candidate amongst many minority groups outside blacks, and he is not in any way a “centrist” politician- he is a hard left liberal with absolutely no issues that he will cross the aisle to compromise his liberalism in the way Bill Clinton did, and he is not doing well with the ultimate swing voter group in the Country- white males. Couple that with his true lack of inexperience and foreign policy naivete, and he truly has a limit on his cross-demographic appeal. And the final nail in his coffin will come when the RNC drops the Michelle Obama videotaped rant in which she uses the term “whitey” in a derisive manner. Let’s see how well that flies on Main Street, America.

    This election is McCain’s for the taking- but if he keeps putting down the President, he will be his own undoing. Articulate conservatism in a genial way, and McCain is your winner. Problem is, McCain has always been his (and conservatives’) worst enemy.

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  3. Jim,I told you that Hillary Clinton wasn’t a lock for the nomination.

    Did you see McCain’s rebuttal of Obama’s victory speech? The Maverick is the 2008 version of Bob Dole.

  4. Irony says:

    As of Oct. 10, 2008, after three national debates and in the midst of a stock market nosedive, it looks like Jim is still right.

    I like the line about government regulation.

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