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Mr. Obvious: It’s not looking good for McCain

Jim Johnson | June 23, 2008 |

Okay, so I decided to take a look at Real Clear Politics‘ polls in battleground states and post those results to an electoral map on 270toWin.

The result: President Barack Obama — by a heck of a lot. 330 electoral votes to 270 electoral votes.

The only state that is not accurate is Georgia. Most polls still do not include Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, the former Republican Congressman from Georgia. I do not think Barr could win the state, but he will take votes from McCain. Add to that an increase black turnout, and the state will go to Obama.

So here is the map (click to enlarge):

So, what do you think?

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Comments

6 Comments so far

Steve Burden, Lutz, FL on June 23, 2008 9:21 pm
At this point in the race, it ALWAYS looks good for democrats.

Capitalists are out making money to pay for the goverment giveaways to the other half of the voting population that don’t pay taxes.

They don’t have time to pay attention to politics, yet.
Jim Peterson on June 24, 2008 5:07 am
Bob Barr’s poll numbers need to rise so high BEFORE the Republican convention that:

1) McCain steps down for “health reasons” to be replaced by a more libertarian candidate.

2) McCain choses Sanford or another libertarian VP candidate.

I got into politics because the Republicans stabbed me in the back with the IMBRA law, which requires that Americans traveling overseas need to be background checked in order to say hello to a foreign woman via a dating website. Even a married man would draw the line at continuing to support a Republican Party that would turn their backs on basic human rights like saying hello without a background check.
Will on June 24, 2008 8:07 am
Other than Georgia going to Obama, I think the map is “currently” accurate based on american viewpoints now.

Will things change, who knows. But as of now, i would put Obama at 315 to McCain at 225
Bryan Farris on June 27, 2008 2:21 pm
I would agree with you with two exceptions. I think NC will go for McCain and I think Indiana may very well be the shocker of the cycle and vote Democrat for the first time since 1964!
Bryan Farris on June 27, 2008 2:22 pm
Oh, and you need to flip Michigan to the Democrats. No way, Granholm, Levin and Stabenow are going to let McCain have that prize!
Jim Johnson on June 29, 2008 1:26 pm
I will be doing new posts like this every so often, using the RCP polls and 270 to win maps.

When Dukakis was up big this far out, and Clinton was in 3rd place … it’s hard to say that today’s polls are really effective at predicting the election.

However, I can tell you — news organizations need to stop polling nationally. It doesn’t matter who the country as a whole feels. Only how each state feels.