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State of Sunshine Predictions: Florida Congressional Seats

Jim Johnson | October 30, 2008 |

With Election Day approaching, I wanted to take a moment to read some tea leaves and render predictions.

Here are my projected winners for the Florida Congressional Districts (* = Incumbent):
1 - Jeff Miller (R)*
2 - Allen Boyd (D)*
4 - Ander Crenshaw (R)*
5 - Ginny Brown-Waite (R)*
6 - Cliff Stearns (R)*
7 - John Mica (R)*
8 - Alan Grayson (D)
9 - Gus Bilirakis (R)*
10 - Bill Young (R)*
11 - Kathy Castor (D)*
12 - Adam Putnam (R)*
13 - Vern Buchanan (R)*
14 - Connie Mack (R)*
15 - Bill Posey (R)
16 - Tom Rooney (R)
18 - Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)*
19 - Robert Wexler (D)*
20 - Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (D)*
21 - Raul Martinez (D)
22 - Ron Klein (D)*
23 - Alcee Hastings (D)*
24 - Suzanne Kosmas (D)
25 - Joe Garcia (D)

Across the country, the vast majority of Congressional incumbents win re-election. In Florida, however, I am predicting four - yes four - incumbents to lose: Ric Keller (8-R), Tim Mahoney (16-D), Lincoln Diaz-Balart (21-R), Mario Diaz-Balart (25-R). These are not big surprises because many of these seats are on various “watch” lists.

I am not including Ros-Lehtinen who is in danger, because I don’t think Annette Taddeo can close the gap. Vern Buchanan is equally safe because Jan Schneider, who previously ran as a Democrat, is running without party affiliation and will steal votes from Democrat Christine Jennings.

From here, it looks like the Democrats will pick up a net of three seats here in Florida.

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Comments

2 Comments so far

Lee Nelson on October 31, 2008 9:17 am
I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that I believe Doug Tudor will take down Adam Putnam.

The DCCC doesn’t think he can do it, but I think that a great deal of effort has been taken to capture down ballot voting for the early and absentee voting to the point this may be the biggest upset of all.
Edgar R Ewing on February 6, 2009 5:42 pm
WE live in Marion County, Spruce creek preserve on Rt 200 se
I would like to know which district I live in and who is my House of Rep.
and who is my federal senator.