State of Sunshine Predictions: Florida Congressional Seats

With Election Day approaching, I wanted to take a moment to read some tea leaves and render predictions.

Here are my projected winners for the Florida Congressional Districts (* = Incumbent):
1 – Jeff Miller (R)*
2 – Allen Boyd (D)*
4 – Ander Crenshaw (R)*
5 – Ginny Brown-Waite (R)*
6 – Cliff Stearns (R)*
7 – John Mica (R)*
8 – Alan Grayson (D)
9 – Gus Bilirakis (R)*
10 – Bill Young (R)*
11 – Kathy Castor (D)*
12 – Adam Putnam (R)*
13 – Vern Buchanan (R)*
14 – Connie Mack (R)*
15 – Bill Posey (R)
16 – Tom Rooney (R)
18 – Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)*
19 – Robert Wexler (D)*
20 – Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (D)*
21 – Raul Martinez (D)
22 – Ron Klein (D)*
23 – Alcee Hastings (D)*
24 – Suzanne Kosmas (D)
25 – Joe Garcia (D)

Across the country, the vast majority of Congressional incumbents win re-election. In Florida, however, I am predicting four – yes four – incumbents to lose: Ric Keller (8-R), Tim Mahoney (16-D), Lincoln Diaz-Balart (21-R), Mario Diaz-Balart (25-R). These are not big surprises because many of these seats are on various “watch” lists.

I am not including Ros-Lehtinen who is in danger, because I don’t think Annette Taddeo can close the gap. Vern Buchanan is equally safe because Jan Schneider, who previously ran as a Democrat, is running without party affiliation and will steal votes from Democrat Christine Jennings.

From here, it looks like the Democrats will pick up a net of three seats here in Florida.

About Jim Johnson

Editor and publisher of The State of Sunshine.
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2 Responses to State of Sunshine Predictions: Florida Congressional Seats

  1. Lee Nelson says:

    I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that I believe Doug Tudor will take down Adam Putnam.

    The DCCC doesn’t think he can do it, but I think that a great deal of effort has been taken to capture down ballot voting for the early and absentee voting to the point this may be the biggest upset of all.

  2. Edgar R Ewing says:

    WE live in Marion County, Spruce creek preserve on Rt 200 se
    I would like to know which district I live in and who is my House of Rep.
    and who is my federal senator.

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