State of Sunshine Predictions: US Senate Races

With Election Day approaching, I wanted to take a moment to read some tea leaves and render predictions.

Here are my projected winners for the United States Senate:
Alabama – Jeff Sessions (R) retains his seat.
Alaska – Mark Begich (D) beats incumbent Ted Stevens (R)
Colorado – Mark Udall (D) wins an open Republican seat.
Delaware – Joe Biden (D) retains his seat.
Georgia – Saxby Chambliss (R) retains his seat.
Idaho – Jim Risch (R) wins an open Republican seat.
Illinois – Dick Durbin (D) retains his seat.
Iowa – Tom Harkin (D) retains his seat.
Kentucky – Mitch McConnell (R) retains his seat.
Kansas – Pat Roberts (R) retains his seat.
Lousiana – Mary Landrieu (D) retains her seat.
Maine – Susan Collins (R) retains her seat.
Massachusetts – John Kerry (D) retains his seat.
Michigan – Carl Levin (D) retains his seat.
Minnesota – Al Franken (D) beats incumbent Norm Coleman (R)
Mississippi – Thad Cochran (R) retains his seat.
Mississippi – Roger Wicker (R) retains his seat.
Montana – Max Baucus (D) retains his seat.
Nebraska – Mike Johanns (R) wins an open Republican seat.
New Hampshire – Jeanne Shaheen (D) beats incumbent John Sununu (R)
New Jersey – Frank Lautenberg (D) retains his seat.
New Mexico – Tom Udall (D) wins an open Republican seat
North Carolina – Kay Hagan (D) beats incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R)
Oklahoma – James Inhofe (R) retains his seat.
Oregon – Jeff Merkley beats incumbent Gordon Smith (R)
Rhode Island – Jack Reed (D) retains his seat.
South Carolina – Lindsey Graham (R) retains his seat.
South Dakota – Tim Johnson (D) retains his seat.
Tennessee – Lamar Alexander (R) retains his seat.
Texas – John Cornyn (R) retains his seat.
Viginia – Mark Warner (D) wins an open Republican seat
West Virginia – Jay Rockefeller (D) retains his seat.
Wyoming – John Barrasso (R) retains his seat.
Wyoming – Michael Enzi (R) retains his seat.

So from this list there are a few surprises. Elizabeth Dole losing in North Carolina. Al Franken winning in Minnesota. The two Udalls winning open seats. I am showing a net gain of eight seats for the Democrats, which will be less than the magic 60.

The Presidential race could have an impact on the western states. For example, Democrats in Alaska may stay home if Obama wins early enough — giving Stevens a victory despite his recent conviction.

These are the races that will be interesting as election night gets later.

About Jim Johnson

Editor and publisher of The State of Sunshine.
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