State of Sunshine Predictions: Florida Senate

With Election Day approaching, I wanted to take a moment to read some tea leaves and render predictions.

Here are my projected winners for the Florida Senate (* = Incumbent):
1 – Tony Hill (D)*
3 – Charlie Dean (R)*
5 – Stephen Wise (R)*
7 – Evelyn Lynn (R)*
9 – Andy Gardiner (R)
11 – Mike Fasano (R)*
17 – JD Alexander (R)
19 – Gary Siplin (D)*
23 – Nancy Detert (R)
24 – Kendall Moore (D)
25 – Jeff Atwater (R)*
27 – Dave Aronberg (D)*
29 – Chris Smith (D)
35 – Dan Gelber (D)

The first surprise to many here might be the 24th district, where I predict a Democrat switch. The seat was held by Senator Bill Posey who is running for Congress, and Republican Thad Altman had the field cleared for him to run. However, I am looking at a solid candidate with local government experience that will get a big lift from Obama.

Another race I think that could surprise might be the 11th district in Pinellas & Pasco counties. Incumbent Mike Fasano has significantly more resources at his disposal, but increased Democratic turnout could help Fred Taylor if voters do not split tickets. I think Fasano pulls it out, but closer than he and the GOP would like.

In the 19th district in Orlando, Gary Siplin has had some legal troubles and should be vulnerable. Belinda Ortiz is a good GOP candidate, but there are way to many African-American voters coming out for Obama in this district for any Republican to win.

About Jim Johnson

Editor and publisher of The State of Sunshine.
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