There are still 9 days left before Election Day in Florida, so this is purely an intellectual exercise – But Gillum could be winning already.
Let’s start with an update of total voters who have voted early in-person or voted by mail, as reported by Steve Schale on his Twitter account.
Total vote: 2,558,850
R: 1,091,203 (42.64)
D: 1,015,527 (39.68)
Orange hasn’t reported, but was Dem +3,700 yesterday.
More later. Now go vote. pic.twitter.com/uInCSkW1zH— Steve Schale (@steveschale) October 28, 2018
From there we take the numbers
- 1,091,203 Republicans
- 1,015,527 Democrats
- 452,120 NPAs / Others
From if we average these three polls, Republicans support Desantis about the same the Democrats support Gillum. The difference is the Independent voters… who are breaking 5 to 4 for Gillum… very close indeed.
If the remaining undecided voters (7.8%) break the same as those who indicated a preference, Gillum is winning by 8,000 votes or 0.33%.
Yes, there are still 9 days left until the election… and this exercise shows just how close the race is and will be.