The St. Petersburg Times today has a story about the effects of Florida Democratic Delegate Conundrum on the electoral college map in the fall. Adam Smith’s conclusion: Democrats don’t need Florida to win the White House.
Of course, avid State of Sunshine readers will recall my post on the electoral map from last July, where I came to the same conclusion. Although my rationale for the GOP winning Florida was different (I thought Crist’s popularity would be holding strong through next year — and it still may).
Adam Smith posted, on the Times‘ Buzz Blog, the 2004 results with swing states highlighted:
Adam provides his insight into these swing states as well in a separate article.
Here is my map from back in July:
I built it on the website 270towin.com. Give it a try yourself. (And fellow bloggers - post your images on your blog, and comment here with a link!)
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Obama Should Make This Deal — It Will Make Him The Nominee
Jim Johnson | 10:23pm March 13, 2008 | 2 Comments
Okay, a few days ago I posted that it won’t matter what ever Florida and Michigan do. After a little analysis, with the help of the Slate and CNN delegate estimators, the math supports this…
But take a look for yourself:
| State | Clinton | Obama |
| Pledged Delegates (As of March 13) |
1,243 | 1,440 |
| Pennsylvania | 83 (52%) | 75 (48%) |
| Guam | 2 (52%) | 2 (48%) |
| Indiana | 39 (54%) | 33 (46%) |
| North Carolina | 50 (44%) | 65 (56%) |
| West Virginia | 15 (53%) | 13 (47%) |
| Kentucky | 27 (52%) | 24 (48%) |
| Oregon | 25 (48%) | 27 (52%) |
| Montana | 9 (54%) | 7 (46%) |
| South Dakota | 8 (54%) | 7 (46%) |
| Puerto Rico | 26 (47%) | 29 (53%) |
| Pledge Super Delegates (As of March 13) |
237 | 207 |
| —– | —– | —– |
| Total on June 7 | 1,764 | 1,893 |
Okay, so based on the percentages I listed above, the pledge regular and super delegates through the rest of the primaries would leave Obama 132 delegates short of the nomination, and Clinton 261 delegates short.
There are 351 super delegates left who have not committed to either candidate.
Okay, but what about this solution:
Hillary Clinton agrees the 55 “Uncommitted” delegates in Michigan would be awarded to Barack Obama. Barack Obama agrees to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates based on the results from the January primaries.
How would that look?
| State | Clinton | Obama |
| —– | —– | —– |
| Total on June 7 | 1,764 | 1,894 |
| Michigan | 73 | 55 |
| Florida | 105 | 67 |
| TOTAL | 1,942 | 2,015 |
If Obama stands up and is the bigger man — he comes within a hair’s breadth of the nomination.
He would only need 10 super delegates — or perhaps to win a handful more delegates in the remaining primaries — and he wins the nomination.
So here it is… this Republican has the idea to save the Democrats:
Obama needs to let the Michigan and Florida results stand. Clinton needs to give Michigan’s uncommitted delegates to Obama.
Why doesn’t anyone in the Democratic party get this?
Why a Democratic Primary Do-Over Won’t Matter Anyway
Jim Johnson | 12:54pm March 12, 2008 | Leave a Comment
There has been a heck of a lot of discussion lately about Florida Democrats holding some kind of “do-over” for the Presidential Preference Primary. A new vote. A mail-in primary. A caucus.
Other people, mostly Hillary Clinton supporters, are calling on the DNC to let the Florida vote stand.
Well, my friends, let me be the first to tell you:
It makes no difference.
None.
Zip.
Why?
Florida would have 185 pledged delegates. If the primary results stood, Hillary would get a little more than 100 and Obama would get around 70, the rest would have gone to Edwards. Clinton would go from 1,243 pledged to 1,348; Obama would go from 1,404 to 1,471. Add in the Michigan votes and you get Clinton 1,421 and Obama at 1,526.
So if Obama plays the bigger man, Clinton gets a net gain of 56 delegates… even if you count the superdelegates (Clinton is leading them 237 to 207) We would be looking at a contest that has Obama ahead 1,733 to 1,658. Remember 2,025 are needed to secure the nomination.
Doing these primaries over might change those numbers a bit, make them closer or spread Edwards’ votes between the two candidates. But we’re not talking any real landslide changes here.
Okay, by now you’re asking how this might impact the remaining primaries.
- Pennsylvania (4/22) - 158
- Guam (5/3 ) - 4
- Indiana (5/6) - 72
- North Carolina (5/6) - 115
- West Virginia (5/13) - 28
- Kentucky (5/20) - 51
- Oregon (5/20) - 52
- Montana (6/3) - 16
- South Dakota (6/13) - 15
- Puerto Rico (6/7) - 55
There are only 566 pledged delegates at stake in the 10 primaries left in the 2008 cycle. With Michigan and Florida results counted, Hillary can not win on pledged delegates alone and Obama has to win 89% of the votes to get to 2,025. Without Michigan and Florida, Obama can’t get there on pledged delegates either.
Thus, no matter what happens with Florida and Michigan, the 351 remaining unpledged Superdelegates will be the ones to decide this race. Period.
Vote numbers come from CNN’s website.
Today was the special election for House District 32 on Florida’s East Coast. The district was vacated when former Rep. Bob Allen resigned after being convicted of soliciting sex.
The seat was fairly safe - held by a Republican for some time. Bob Allen and before him Republican Randy Ball.
But tonight, at least from what I can see on the Florida Department of State website, the seat was won by a Democrat.
| State Representative District: 32 |
||||
| County | Sean Campbell (REP) |
Tony Sasso (DEM) |
Jerry Vadis Maynard (NPA) |
|
| Brevard | 8,309 | 8,949 | 1,303 | |
| Orange | 1,609 | 1,381 | 106 | |
| Total | 9,918 | 10,330 | 1,409 | |
| % Votes | 45.8% | 47.7% | 6.5% | |
Could it be a sign of things to come?
Consider this:
John McCain has pretty much wrapped up the nomination — although I don’t think it’s really a forgone conclusion if Conservatives unite behind Huckabee, but that’s another post.
Because the race is over, the media coverage will drop off. It usually happens to both parties at about the same time. However, the Clinton-Obama horserace will mean the media day after day, night after night will be talking about and playing speeches by the Democrats.
The media are already biased enough, now they have a reason to feature the Democrats more than ever.
Meanwhile, mentions of McCain will be in passing. “Of course McCain wins the Texas primary… blah blah blah. Let’s take a closer look at Clinton-Obama…”
If Rudy Giuliani lost because he was not campaigning actively in the early states — and therefore was not in local media or on the national media campaigns — then how can the Republican party not suffer some negative impact from McCain fading into the background as well?
Some will point out the Republican Convention is after the Democrats. And that’s true it’s one week after. Which means we can count on the Democrats dominating the media until the end of August.
So this is what we have… a macrocosm of the Republican month of January. One candidate sitting out active campaigning until a later election. Other candidates constantly in the media for the next 7+ months.
Mitt said he backed out because he didn’t want to help elect Clinton or Obama.
Is it possible that by backing out, he is doing just that?
The story I’m hearing is Romney is bowing out because he realized he can’t win and drawing it out further would only be detrimental to the GOP.
John McCain effectively sealed the Republican presidential nomination on Thursday as chief rival Mitt Romney suspended his faltering presidential campaign.
“If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Senator Clinton or Obama would win. And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign, be a part of aiding a surrender to terror,” Romney will say at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington.
“This is not an easy decision for me. I hate to lose. My family, my friends and our supporters… many of you right here in this room… have given a great deal to get me where I have a shot at becoming President. If this were only about me, I would go on. But I entered this race because I love America, and because I love America, I feel I must now stand aside, for our party and for our country,” Romney said.
Well, that may not be exactly fair. After all, given the way this election has gone, no one really expected the an almost-national primary with so many delegates at stake to solve anything.
Here is what we know.
Barack Obama won more states. Hillary Clinton won more delegates - barely. It’s neck and neck with a long way to go.
The LA Times primary tracker shows Clinton with 845 delegates and Obama with 765 delegates. If one candidate won every delegate going forward (which doesn’t happen in because Democratic primaries that award delegates proportionally, but we’re talking hypothetically here) either Obama or Clinton would need to sweep all states until Pennsylvania votes on April 22nd. With only 1,787 delegates left and 2,025 needed to win, if Obama and Clinton split the delegates 50-50, neither will have enough to win the nomination.
John McCain is the Republican front-runner with 615 delages. Huckabee was able to parlay his strong base in the south to wins, but with with 190 delegates, he’s still in third place to Mitt Romney’s 269. Still quite a ways to go on the GOP side as well.
Republicans have fewer delegates at stake in February, and if all three candidates stay in the race, the GOP could go until late April or even May based on the calendars going forward.
This will be the most interesting presidential primary since the Democrats in 1968…
For information, the New York Times has great calendar pages for the Democrats and Republicans.
Dear Jim,
Over the past year, as I traveled around the country, people from all walks of life welcomed me into their homes and communities with open arms. From house parties to parades to town halls and rallies, I have shared in some wonderful moments with you all and for that I am eternally grateful.
Thank you for sharing your concerns with me. Thank you for working with me to provide our children with a brighter and more prosperous future. Thank you for your support and trust and faith. And thank you for being a part of this wonderful journey.
A New York Republican named Teddy Roosevelt once said ?aggressive fighting for the right is the noblest sport the world affords.? Like most Americans, I love competition. I don't back down from a principled fight.
But there must always be a larger purpose.
Elections are about more than just a candidate. Elections are about fighting for a cause larger than ourselves. They are about identifying the great challenges of our time and proposing new solutions.? Most of all, they are about handing our nation to the next generation better than it was handed to us.
Although we were unsuccessful in our endeavor, the fight to strengthen America goes on. Our nation's next President must understand and make a commitment to keep us on offense in the Terrorists' War on Us. He must understand that stimulating our economy requires cutting taxes, because you make better decisions with your money than Washington bureaucrats. He must be committed to ending illegal immigration and securing our borders. And he must use free-market principles to make health care more affordable for all Americans.
I believe John McCain is that man. He is the right leader to move us forward, unite our party and transform Washington. I hope that you will join me in supporting him to be the next President of the United States.
As I look forward to the road ahead, I am optimistic because I believe America's best days are still to come. Our country has a bright future, but we must work together to ensure that our shared prosperity creates new and better opportunities for us all.
Best Wishes,
Rudy Giuliani
Paid for by the Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee, Inc.
A lot of pundits are talking about what happened to Giuliani’s strategy. Many more will analyze this over time. Here are some of my first thoughts.
First, the playing field shifted. After the first of the year, the major issue shifted from the war in Iraq and the broader war on terror to domestic issues. The discussion changed from an area of strength to an area of weakness for Giuliani.
Second, the American electorate really doesn’t pay attention until late in the game. And they get most of their information from the news. Thus, the fact that other candidates were in the media - with Huckabee, McCain, Romney, and McCain all getting a lot of press for their wins. This “earned media” trumps paid media any day.
So, Rudy did not have a strong message on the economy - and didn’t have much of a chance to spread his message if he did.
But I don’t think that is the real reason Rudy failed.
Bill Bennett on CNN said it well — Rudy looked like he was just going through the motions; like he was “trying out” a campaign. I only had one chance to see him in person, before the South Carolina primary, and I was not impressed. He lacked energy. He lacked charisma. He spoke well. He had good things to say. But I was uninspired.
With the right candidate, the strategy can work. It’s not about the gameplan, it’s the execution. A candidate like Ronald Reagan or Barack Obama, charismatic and energetic, could make it succeed. Rudy was just not the right candidate.
It will be interesting to see if the nomination process changes in 2012. If not, will another candidate have both the ability and the desire to repeat the Giuliani gambit?