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- Crist garners more DC endorsements…
- Crist leading Rubio in Mason-Dixon poll
- GOP “Outrage” is almost farcical
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- Tampa Mayor Iorio Issues Statement on her immediate political future
- Marco Rubio’s Secret Recipe
- Tune into Rubio
- With Session over (almost) when does Crist announce and for what
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What happens in Virginia Stays in Virginia – Not!
Angelette Aviles | 04:42pm June 11, 2009 | 1 Comment
The results of the Virginia Democratic Gubernatorial primary are a great example of what may occur in the Florida Republican Senate primary. Here are the comparisons:
|
|
Virginia |
Florida |
|
Name Recognition Advantage |
McAuliffe |
Crist |
|
Prior Poll Results favored…. |
McAuliffe |
Crist |
|
Money Advantage |
McAuliffe |
Crist |
|
Message over money |
Deeds |
Rubio |
|
Stronger Online Presence |
Deeds |
Rubio |
|
Winner (the underdog) |
Deeds |
Rubio? |
Currently polls are indicating the Crist is in the lead, however we still have over a year left in the campaign season. Creigh Deeds, in Virginia, is a good example of how early polls don’t fly nowadays by beating Terry McAuliffe by over a 20-point margin on election day. Look what happened to Giuliani as well last year. If polls were done online or on social networks today, the results would indicate that Rubio takes the commanding lead.
Speaking of internet, as soon as Deeds got the endorsement from the Washington Post he spent over half of his online ad budget on a Google surge of displayed advertising. Within 28 hours of this Google blast about 8.8 million impressions ran. Could we expect the same from Rubio? Possibly.
Even if he does not get an endorsement from the press there is lots of positive remarks already marked on tv and print which he can use to his advantage when campaigning. Right now Rubio is the media darling and the more the press allows Rubio to speak the less he needs to spend on paid advertising which then leaves him more time to do the one-on-one with citizens like Deed.
Another example of his appeal with the media is a recent conversation I had with a friend of mine, who is a reporter for one of the major networks. She told me that she is considering switching parties just to vote in the Republican primary and would vote for Rubio. Why? She explained after interviewing him and watching other reports that he is not a typical politician who dodges questions or wedge issues. Although she may not agree with all his positions the fact that he is very direct in responding showed her that he has the ability to lead.
In conclusion, take it from Patrick Ruffini, a Republican online strategist, who was quoted saying, “In the modern campaign, early money and establishment support matters far, far less than it used to, and could actually turn out to be a handicap — particularly when money becomes the story.” He adds, “As a campaign manager, I’d much, much rather be running the guy with a message and no money versus the guy with money and no message.”
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Crist garners more DC endorsements…
Jim Johnson | 12:00pm May 20, 2009 | 6 Comments
United States Senators John Cornyn, Mitch McConnell, Lamar Alexander, Mel Martinez, and now John McCain… all lining up behind Governor Charlie Crist.
Rubio has… um… well… let’s see. I know there is a big grassroots push behind former Florida House of Representatives Speaker Marco Rubio. But, my fellow Republicans, ask yourself when the last time a “grassroots” effort actually mattered in the Republican primary.
I know it irks many people to see Crist get this kind of attention. Heck, Rubio may actually be better for the Republican Party. The list of positive qualities about Rubio is longer than my arm… (I just disagree with some of his positions on issues; the same way my more conservative colleagues disagree with Crist’s positions on issues).
That said, the Republican Party exists to win elections. It’s all well and good to have a discussion about issues, but why waste time, effort, energy, and money — all of which are in limited supply — without having the best chance to win an election.
Some misguided folks are actually calling for a boycott of the NRSC because of this. Hmmm. Let’s see. The Democrats are about to get 60 Senators thanks to Specter and the voters of Minnesota. In 2010, the Democrats are likely going to win in Ohio, Missouri, New Hampshire, and maybe Kentucky. And people want to deprive them of the financial capability of defending these and taking back other seats. Do you really LIKE being in the minority and letting Harry Reid run roughshod over us?
In my book, the Florida Senate seat will remain Republican. The NRSC has a limited pocketbook, and Crist in the general will be less expensive than Rubio. Seems to me backing Crist is a fiscally conservative thing to do…
Even if it’s not politically conservative.
Crist leading Rubio in Mason-Dixon poll
Jim Johnson | 06:27am May 20, 2009 | Leave a Comment
The Buzz has a report on a recent Mason-Dixon poll:
- Crist leads Rubio 53% to 18% — this is a minor change since an April Quinnipiac poll showing Crist with a 54% to 8% lead. Rubio’s numbers have gone up as he’s toured the state, but Crist’s have not changed.
- Among Republicans, Crist has a huge advantage in “name ID” - 100% of Republicans recognize him and his favorability/unfavorability is 50/19. Rubio, on the otherhand, only has a 44% “name ID” with a 20/2 favorability rating. Rubio will have to spend a lot more money introducing himself to Floridians…
The poll also compared Crist to Gelber and Meek and looked at the Governor’s race… but I am wondering why they did not ask about Rubio facing Gelber or Meek. Perhaps Quinnipiac or another poll will include that information.
GOP “Outrage” is almost farcical
Jim Johnson | 06:19am May 20, 2009 | 4 Comments
At last night’s Hillsborough County Republican Executive Committee, Chairwoman Deborah Cox-Roush gave her report on the recent resolution adopted by the leadership of the REC to express their displeasure at Republican party leaders getting involved in primary races. While I am paraphrasing her speech, she said the GOP should wait and let the voters decide.
Unfortunately, that is not reality. Republican and Democratic party leaders get involved in just about every race. They play favorites well before the primary. They attempt to anoint their preferred candidate. It happens all the time.
Here is a case in point: Dennis Ross. The Lakeland Ledger is reporting Ross is getting the backing of most party bigwigs, from Jeb Bush to Eric Cantor. The party is attempting to “clear the field” for Ross. Where is the outrage from conservatives complaining about backing a candidate before the voters have had a chance to speak?
Don’t get me wrong, I like Ross. He will make a great Congressman. But if our party leaders are really going to sit back and shout because party leaders backed Crist over Rubio, they need to have the same standard for Congressional, legislative, and county races. But I won’t be holding my breath for a resolution on the GOP’s early involvement in the CD 12 race…
Many readers know that I used to manage campaigns in a former life. I also ran for state representative in 2002. I have seen first hand how the Republican Party gets involved in races before the primary. It happens in almost every race. Yet this is the first time we’ve seen this kind of widespread agitation over a common practice.
If our local leaders are that adamant about party meddling, they need to oppose it every time… even when the meddling benefits candidates they personally support.
The falseness of “RINO”
Jim Johnson | 07:23pm May 12, 2009 | Leave a Comment
Many Republican activists toss around the term RINO - “Republican In Name Only” - to describe fellow Republicans with whom they disagree on a few issues. Yes, I said a few.
Read more
Tampa Mayor Iorio Issues Statement on her immediate political future
Jim Johnson | 10:53am May 11, 2009 | Leave a Comment
Received this via email:
A Statement from Mayor Iorio May 11, 2009There has been a lot of political interest generated since Florida’s Senator Mel Martinez made his announcement about stepping down in 2010. I have gotten my share of phone calls and letters from people wanting to know what political plans I had for the future.
Over the past several months, I have given much thought to this and have concluded that 2010 is not the right time to pursue a statewide or national office. My four-year term as mayor does not end until March 2011 and I believe that running both the city of Tampa and a statewide campaign at the same time over the next eighteen months would shortchange the citizens of Tampa. Properly balancing the city’s budget in these difficult economic times deserves my full attention, as does the completion of the major capital improvement projects I began with the new Cultural Arts District along our downtown waterfront. Of particular importance to me, and to the entire region, is the major initiative of light rail, which needs time and strong support to become a reality.
I appreciate the words of encouragement and support from many friends and constituents but will not be announcing for any other office this year.
Marco Rubio’s Secret Recipe
Angelette Aviles | 05:31am May 5, 2009 | Leave a Comment
What a relief! Former Florida House Speaker, Marco Rubio, is in the run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Mel Martinez. He indicated his desire for the post on Univision-Miami, however the official announcement is to be aired on Cinco de Mayo on his website www.MarcoRubio.com at 10:00am.
Why not a press conference? Who cares about speaking in front of reporters and supporters because at that point everyone knows why they were invited. What Rubio is doing is a great way to keep people talking and keep the enthusiasm alive.
By communicating through Univision, a website, and social networking tools clearly indicates his awareness of the important role Hispanics and the youth will play in the upcoming election. Besides being bilingual, studies show Hispanics spend more time online than any other group mainly because the average age of Latinos is 27. They are part of the larger “Millennial” generation, a cohort with political muscle.
When you think about it, the Republican Party needs a catalyst like Rubio, who will bring a little Sazón (flavor) to the party and expand the party’s base by attracting the youth and Latino vote. Sorry, if I am about to offend some of you, but enough with the blue-hairs in office! Most people who don’t follow politics will say, “I want someone who I can relate to and looks like me.”
Let’s see where the moderate Charlie Crist stands later this week. Some Republicans are disappointed with Crist and are looking for the light at the end of the tunnel with the more conservative Rubio. Others have stated that Crist is still a shoo-in in a primary alluding to his 2006 win against a conservative Gallagher.
Times are a changing! In 2006, we did not have “Tea Parties” nor was there a strong presence of campaigning via social networking tools and YouTube. Although Gallagher tried to paint Crist as “too liberal,” today Republicans are opening their eyes and feeling a little buyers remorse.
Please tune into www.marcorubio.com today at 10:00am and come back for your comments.
Tune into Rubio
Angelette Aviles | 09:37pm May 4, 2009 | Leave a Comment
Former Florida House speaker will announce his future political plans on Cinco de Mayo at 10:00am. He will be utilizing today’s current technology and campaign method to make his announcement at www.MarcoRubio.com. Stay tuned and follow back with your comments!
With Session over (almost) when does Crist announce and for what
Jim Johnson | 11:12am May 2, 2009 | Leave a Comment
The 2009 Legislative Session passed the 60-day mark yesterday, extended for one more week. The only thing left to do is pass the budget, with tobacco taxes and the Seminole Gaming compact - and the revenue they generate - included.
And so, the next thing for Florida politicos to discuss: Will Governor Charlie Crist run for re-election or for the United States Senate? And when?
So today on Twitter, there is a new #cristcountdown discussion.
What do you think? Post your tweet on Twitter:
Twitter is a free social networking and micro-blogging service that enables its users to send and read other users’ updates known as tweets. Tweets are text-based posts of up to 140 characters in length which are displayed on the user’s profile page and delivered to other users who have subscribed to them (known as followers). Senders can restrict delivery to those in their circle of friends or, by default, allow anybody to access them. Users can send and receive tweets via the Twitter website, text message, or external applications. The service is free to use over the Internet, but using text messages may incur phone service provider fees.
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The future of the GOP
Jim Johnson | 05:38am May 1, 2009 | Leave a Comment
In recent days, I read two great pieces that illustrate what I feel is a major problem with my Republican party. The first was an op-ed piece in the New York Times by Maine Republican Senator Olympia Snowe. The second was a column on Forbes.com by Bruce Bartlett. Both talked about the implications of Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter’s switch to the Republican Party.
Bartlett correctly points out that the Republican Revolution led by Newt Gingrich in 1994 was because Democrats purged their more moderate members in 1974. And Democrats regained control only after adopting a “big tent” approach - by no longer insisting their members adhere to every plank on the platform.
History should be a dire warning to my fellow Republicans. Stop making the party a difficult place for the Arlen Specters and Olympia Snowes and Charlie Crists and John McCains. This party needs moderate voices, as Bartlett points out:
The party is now widely viewed as corrupt, incompetent, ideologically rigid and out of step with the American mainstream. It should be engaging in self-examination, developing an agenda that addresses the real problems faced by Americans and reaching out to the millions of voters who have left the GOP in recent years. Instead, Republicans are pushing out the last of the party’s moderates as if that will somehow make them more popular with the very moderates whose votes are essential if they are to regain power.
If Republicans really want to take back Congress and win back the White House, then we have to abandon ideology and adopt a pragmatic approach. Snowe wrote:
There is no plausible scenario under which Republicans can grow into a majority while shrinking our ideological confines and continuing to retract into a regional party. Ideological purity is not the ticket back to the promised land of governing majorities — indeed, it was when we began to emphasize social issues to the detriment of some of our basic tenets as a party that we encountered an electoral backlash.
It is for this reason that we should heed the words of President Ronald Reagan, who urged, “We should emphasize the things that unite us and make these the only ‘litmus test’ of what constitutes a Republican: our belief in restraining government spending, pro-growth policies, tax reduction, sound national defense, and maximum individual liberty.” He continued, “As to the other issues that draw on the deep springs of morality and emotion, let us decide that we can disagree among ourselves as Republicans and tolerate the disagreement.”
I couldn’t agree more. We can’t continue to fold our philosophical tent into an umbrella under which only a select few are worthy to stand. Rather, we should view an expansion of diversity within the party as a triumph that will broaden our appeal. That is the political road map we must follow to victory.
We are at a crucial crossroads for the GOP. In one direction lies the return to national prominence by broadening our philosophy. In the other lies the perpetual minority of true ideological principles. Which do we choose?
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